Kerosene Shortage: Should We Be Worried About Flights This Fall?

Between fragile supplies and increasingly expensive fuel, the European air transport industry is approaching autumn under pressure, although a widespread shortage remains avoidable.

An available plane, a ready crew, and boarding passengers are not enough: one must also be able to fill the tanks. For European airlines, this reality takes on a concerning dimension as winter approaches.

According to an analysis by Energy Aspects published by Reuters on September 21, Europe could face a jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The war in Iran has severely disrupted Middle Eastern supplies, forcing the continent to seek its fuel much farther away. South Korea is now among the suppliers mobilized to compensate for these missing volumes.

Supplies under pressure, but reinforcements expected

This imbalance, however, does not mean that European planes will remain largely grounded. Interviewed by Euronews, energy market specialist Kpler estimates that additional imports and the seasonal decrease in traffic, starting in November, should ease the pressures. Nearly 900,000 tons of Asian jet fuel are expected in the coming months.

The fragility also lies in the last miles of delivery. Smaller airports generally have fewer suppliers, more limited storage capacities, and fewer alternative solutions. A well-supplied country can thus still face local difficulties.

The most immediate risk concerns your wallet

For travelers, the primary threat remains economic. Fuel accounts for about 30% of airlines’ operational costs: a sustained increase eventually weighs heavily on their accounts.

Higher ticket prices thus represent a credible risk, without a uniform or automatic increase: each carrier has different protections against jet fuel fluctuations. Autumn could therefore maintain high pressure on fares, even if deliveries are sufficient to sustain departures.

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