Tesla loses billions of dollars at the snap of Trump’s fingers!
This page is translated from the original post "Tesla perd des milliards de dollars d’un claquement de doigts de Trump !" in French.
- 16/08/2025 8:18
The sudden end of the American emission credit market hits Tesla hard, which sees a major source of revenue evaporate.
This decision, stemming from the “Big Beautiful Bill” promoted by Donald Trump, appears to be a political maneuver aimed at rewarding traditional automakers… and perhaps punishing the former ally turned rival, Elon Musk.
For years, Tesla has been raking in billions by selling its CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) credits to groups unable to meet consumption standards. Rather than pay hefty fines, these automakers purchased credits from Tesla, Rivian, or Lucid, transforming a regulatory advantage into a real income stream. Over the last four quarters, Tesla reported nearly $2.5 billion in revenue from regulatory credits globally, with a large portion coming from the American market.
However, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has just halted the issuance of compliance letters, effectively eliminating this domestic market. As a result, Rivian is already anticipating $100 million in losses for 2025, while Tesla could see nearly $1 billion in revenues disappear this year.
Tesla a collateral victim of the Trump vs Musk war?
Officially, the NHTSA states it wants to “revise CAFE standards to make cars more affordable,” before restoring the system. Unofficially, few analysts believe in a quick return under the Trump administration. Many see this sweep as a personal vendetta: after being a massive financial support of the presidential campaign, Elon Musk has publicly distanced himself from Donald Trump, criticizing his governing style and announcing he would not fund his re-election.
The timing fuels suspicions. By depriving Tesla of a recurring margin source, the White House weakens a manufacturer that has become a symbol of electric vehicles, while giving a breather to the Detroit giants struggling to meet standards. Ironic twist: it is the most polluting companies that emerge victorious, while those betting on electric see their model weakened.
For Tesla, the impact is twofold. Financially, the company loses a cushion that offset the pressure on prices and production costs. Strategically, it must now rely solely on its sales and innovations to maintain its margins.
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The end of emission credits could be more than just a simple reform: a disguised political offensive aimed at reminding that no former ally escapes Donald Trump’s wrath for long.
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