With -40.9% sales in Europe, is Tesla already outdated?

Sales of the American manufacturer Tesla collapse in Europe with November 2024 marking a -40.9% decline compared to 2023.

The hemorrhage continues at Tesla in Europe where the simple explanation of the Model Y renewal is no longer sufficient to explain this situation. Never before has the American electric SUV, produced in Berlin, Germany, been so inexpensive and attractive. In the United States, where sales are also dangerously slowing, the highly polarizing personality of CEO Elon Musk is clearly highlighted through various studies, including one by Edmunds in August 2024, where 44% of Democrat women swear they will never buy a Tesla. This figure, prior to the US presidential election results, was also 36% among electric vehicle buyers. This represents millions of potential consumers.

The year 2024 will thus remain, in Tesla’s history, as the first where its growth was halted since its inception. Over more than 10 years of increasing momentum, notoriety, and sales, it is now experiencing a decline that brings it to worrying levels. Because a trend does not reverse instantly or with the launch of a new vehicle alone.

We keep repeating that Tesla’s lineup is too limited: a very successful but aging SUV (Model Y) to be modernized in 2025, a relevant Model 3 but whose segment is declining, and two other very expensive cars (Model S and Model X) which cannot compete with German brands’ standards of finish and prestige.

-15.2% in 2024

Elon Musk jokes about it, but Tesla lacks a more affordable car. The average European does not have 40,000 euros to spend on an electric vehicle at its expiration date – or obsolescence, if you prefer – which is very short, as technology advances quickly. Meanwhile, competitors, especially European ones with the best dealer and sales networks, are continuously developing. Customer loyalty is also a key factor not to overlook. Lastly, in the €40,000 SUV segment, many purchases or lease options (LOA) or long-term rentals (LLD) are made via companies with company cars. By definition, these clients are much more volatile, driven by the latest novelty or rental amount.

Thus, in November 2024, Tesla sold 18,786 cars in Europe, compared to 31,810 in November 2023 (-40.9%). Since the beginning of the year, between January and November 2024, this figure stands at 211,405 units, compared to 249,265 a year earlier, a decrease of 15.2%.

These figures exclude sales made in the United Kingdom, which are quite impressive given the population. Including these sales, volumes rise to 26,191 units in November (-28.4% versus 2023) and 282,691 units in 2024 (-13.7%).

The drastic reduction of the 2025 ecological bonus in France, the third-largest European electric car market, is expected to deal a further blow to Tesla next year.

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